Tuesday 28 July 2009

House price bubble

From the US via Dr Housing Bubble Blog:

Little is mentioned that the median price of a new home fell to $206,200 in June from $219,000 in May (small caveat). A drop of over $13,000 in one month apparently is not important enough to discuss.

Then go and check out this graph of Sydney media prices. It appears to be about $575,000 - nearly triple the US price.

In Australia as a whole, we have this:

The Housing Industry Association (HIA) residential land report shows the weighted median price of undeveloped land in Australia increased by 7.4 per cent in the March 2009 quarter to $172,490, following four consecutive quarterly declines.

The report, conducted in conjunction with RP data, found the most expensive market was Sydney with a median price of $259,000.

That is undeveloped land. In the US, you can get a block on it with a house for not much more these days. Yes, I know there is a difference in exchange rates and so forth, but consider how many multiples of income are required in each country in order to buy a house at the media level.

Household media income in the US is just over $US50,000. In Australia, it is about $AUS53,000.

In the US, you can buy a house on a multiple of 4 times median income.

In Australia, the figure is closer to 11! Just to buy a vacant block takes 5 times media income. I guess you can add another 3 times median income to stick a basic home package on top of it.

This is one reason why I think property prices here are heading for a fall.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

boab, It depends on the land you're sitting on. In places like ours they can't make any more land where people want to buy, which is why we are determined our kids will inherit our spot of Australia, as the price will not fall in our location. The young'uns may struggle with the economy and jobs, but there is security in land that you own outright.

You can live on it, grow veggies, keep chooks and goats and stuff, breed rabbits (my family did all of this in the 1960s) and basically be self-sustaining if needs be. And the beach is just down there at the end of the street.

Can't do it in an apartment or a duplex in the inner city. These properties are a false investment, because they're not really property at all. That's where people will get caught.

Owning land is a solid investment, other property is more iffy.