Showing posts with label NBN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBN. Show all posts

Saturday, 8 January 2011

I've actually done a fibre cost-benefit analysis

You may not know this, but most state governments are sitting on big fibre networks. Quite a few government utilities have rolled out fibre on their own over the last few decades to support their own operations.

For instance, the electricity transmission companies have strung it along their pylons. The RTA has run it along motorways. I'm sure the water mob have laid fibre alongside their pipes. Same with gas. The railways have run it alongside every bit of track in the metro area (not worth it out in the country - surprise, surprise). The railway signalling network used to run over a copper network; most of it is now run over fibre. Not that signalling needs a lot of bandwidth - I remember being told once that it needs 9600kb at most.

Back in my public service days, I worked with a government agency on a cost benefit analysis for hooking up to one of these fibre networks. The fibre was already in place - it ran past most of the larger offices for this agency, which had premises all over the metro area. It was just a matter of tapping into the fibre and putting in the right sort of network kit.

Doing the costing was easy - we needed so many switches at such and such a cost. eg - 50 sites, two switches per site, $10k per switch. Pretty simple maths.

We brought in a cabling company to estimate the hauling of the last mile fibre tails - we needed to bore under roads and pipes and so forth, and that costed up to $80,000 (depending on the difficulty and length of the bore). We also needed to cost in the professional services required to install and configure all that stuff, along with additional power outlets in some places and all sorts of trivial bits and pieces.

Many of the benefits were also easy to quantify. Every office had a small server room. That server room had its own air conditioning and an uninterrupted power supply (and both needed maintenance and had finite lives, and the air con units had to run 24x7). Depending on the location, it would have anywhere from 2 to 10 servers, and all were life expired (ie, old and crap). We added up the cost of centralising hundreds of servers into a single data centre, where a trivial number of servers would be required, versus replacing the whole damned lot (which had to be done anyway as they were cactus). The cost of the existing backup system was incredible - each site required a set of daily, weekly and monthly backup tapes, and backup tapes and tape drives aren't cheap. I think the saving in backup tapes alone was well over $100,000.

Then there was the saving in operating system and application licences - they went from dozens of email servers to just a few. The number of backup software licences was also cut dramatically - they were over $1,000 a pop.

The costing started getting squishy when we got to the technical support aspects - how much would we save on having engineers driving all over the countryside supporting all this kit? That was hard to pin a number on, but we did our best.

In the end, I think we calculated that the project would pay for itself in about 9 months - it was a complete no-brainer.

In typical public service fashion though, the manager of the server team vociferously opposed the project as it would cut into his empire. He preferred to spend millions of dollars of our money on replacing all that kit out in the field because it would make him look more important.

Thankfully, it went ahead. I came back later to see what benefits had been realised, and how the costs had gone. Funnily enough, for a government project, the costs actually came in almost smack on the money. The benefits were realised, along with a couple of unexpected ones that we hadn't thought about - they managed to get rid of two vehicles and some satellite support offices because they didn't need so many people out in the field anymore. They could work from a desk and support stuff remotely, which meant instead of doing 3 hours of driving and 4 hours of work, they could actually do 7 hours of work per day.

We tried to quantify the productivity improvements that the users would get from a faster network - what impact would going from a 2Mb WAN link to 1Gb have? Yes, it was now possible to move large files around quickly (which was actually vital for a couple of projects that generated massive files, including lots of video), but putting numbers on it was next to impossible. You can fudge some stuff up - we did - but you end up with very questionable numbers that fall apart when anyone starts poking them with a sharp intellect.

So it is possible to do a cost-benefit analysis on this sort of thing. It actually didn't take that long - a week at most, with input from half a dozen people. If the costs and benefits are staring you in the face, it's just a matter of crunching the numbers.

That's the problem with the NBN - the benefits aren't staring us in the face. With the Snowy Mountains scheme, I think most people could grasp the benefits of generating cheap hydro power and supplying irrigation water to farmers. With the Harbour Bridge, people could grasp the improvement over catching a ferry to North Sydney and the opening up of land to the north for housing. I'm still trying to grapple with what the NBN is going to deliver.

And before people start going on about health and education, after we finished that fibre rollout for that government agency, we had a look at doing all the hospitals and schools that were within easy reach of that fibre network. It was a no-brainer as well - we were raring to do it. However, it all fell over thanks to inter-agency bickering. We could have had most public hospitals in the metro area and lots of public schools on a 1Gb network 6 or 7 years ago, but the political will wasn't there to ram it through.

Friday, 7 January 2011

NBN cost benefit analysis blah blah blah

Last time I wrote something about the NBN, I got this comment:


How many nation building projects would not be started if they had cost-benefit analysis done against them? Sydney Harbour Bridge? At what point is or should vast nation building projects be less subjected to being forced to turn a profit or not exist? Public parks are wasted real estate oh very high value in some cases, they don't make a profit, why do we allow these spaces to exist then? Where was the cost-benefit analysis of these places?
It's been a few years since I have been involved in producing a cost-benefit analysis for a major project; my last one was the Sydney Airport Rail Link. I was only a junior flunky at the time - my main role was to proof read the research, prepare presentations for Cabinet etc and ask a lot of dumb questions (something I am good at).

The rail link was never expected to be profitable for the government by itself. Most of the financial benefits to the government were to come from the following areas:

  • increased land values (and land taxes and stamp duty) from converting light industrial land along the route to high density housing
  • avoidance of having to pay for lots of new roads, water lines, sewerage, power lines etc on the urban fringe by redeveloping an area that already had them
The other benefits that we looked at had to do with lowering the cost of congestion and the avoidance of a lot of new air pollution that would be created by housing people out on the fringe (where they'd drive a lot).

All these benefits added up to more than the cost of building the line. Estimating them was a lot of fun though - glad I didn't have to do that. However, the thing was, experts were able to come up with rough estimates for all of them, and they were able to justify their estimates using various economic and financial models etc.

I don't get why this can't be done for the NBN - it really isn't that hard once you have identified the benefits.

The thing is, if you can't identify any benefits, then you're in a bit of a pickle.

Tuesday, 21 December 2010

How do the NBN financial assumptions stack up?

The NBN business case is out - if you want to wade through all 160 pages of it (like I did), you can find it here. You can follow a reasonably informed debate on this at Catallaxy, where I originally posted much of this comment.

There are a number of assumptions driving the financial models underlying the business case. As with any model, you can tweak the numbers you put in to get any result you want. Garbage In, Garbage Out.

The amount of revenue the NBN will gather is based on two things - how many customers it signs up, multiplied by the average revenue per customer.

The business case gives us these numbers.

The average revenue per customer is termed ARPU - Average Revenue Per Unit. You are a Unit - get used to it. I am a Unit on a Bike. Or a UNOB. Hmm - don't like the sound of that much.

The plan states that the ARPU will be $34 per month. It's worth looking at how they calculated an ARPU of $34 per month.

There is a table on page 101 that sets out the wholesale prices for each plan

12mb - $24 month
25mb - $27-30 month
50mb - $34
100mb - $38
250mb - $70
500mb - $100
1000mb - $150

There is a graph on page 118 that shows the subscriber split by speed.


I check these things carefully, because I used to do this sort of modelling at work from time to time, and I know how much bullshit went into the models.

From eyeballing the graph, I get the following splits for 2014:

12mb plan - 53% at $24 month
25mb plan - 16% at $28.50 (splitting $27 and $30)
50mb plan - 24% at $34 month
100mb plan - 7% at $38 per month

From that, I calculate an ARPU of $28 per month ex GST.

In 2020, you get:

12mb plan - 45% at $24 month
25mb plan - 5% at $28.50 (splitting $27 and $30)
50mb plan - 15% at $34 month
100mb plan - 25% at $38 per month
250mb plan - 10% at $70 per month

This gives an ARPU of $34, but it is driven by the truly heroic assumption that 10% of the population will be on a 250mb plan with a wholesale price of $70 per month.

It then goes on to assume that by 2028, 40% of the population will be happy paying a wholesale price of between $70 and $150 per month.

I call that "fantasy". I'd love to see the hard data that supports those assumptions about what Australians are willing to pay for their broadband.